So I started my NFL picks (Pick ‘Em) column last week to predict which teams were going to win each game. My record last week? 10-4.
Pretty good, I lost all 3 afternoon games. If you haven’t read my takeaways from last week’s game, check out my post.
Well, I decided to make it a little more interesting for my NFL picks. Instead of picking the outright winner, I’m gonna use the point spread to predict the game instead. If you don’t know what I’m talking about I explained it in this post.
Here are my NFL picks for this week:
I am keeping track of all my NFL picks and the results in a google spreadsheet.
Carolina vs. Tampa Bay
So this will be the morning game at 9:30 AM in London. The London games are always interesting, you never what you’re gonna get. There have been many lopsided games overseas, however the last one between the Raiders and the Chicago Bears turned out to be pretty good. Things to note about London games tho,
Favorites have accumulated impressive 18-6-1 SU (72% win rate) and 15-10 ATS (60% cover rate) records across the 25 games played in U.K. stadiums since 2007, even with the Bears taking a 24-21 loss to the Raiders as 6.5-point favorites in this year’s first London matchup.
Not only have favorites been winning these games, more often than not they’ve been blowing out their opponents, with favorites owning an average point differential of +18.4 since the Jaguars’ 44-7 upset of the Ravens in 2017 (not including 2019 results).
With that being said, I’m still taking the Panthers to cover the spread of 2.5 points. I actually think they are going to win the game. Christian McCaffrey is a beast, and the best RB in football right now in my opinion. The Carolina offense is much improved with a traditional quarterback in Kyle Allen. I think the Bucs will find it difficult to contain CMC, as their defense has been terrible all year long.
Seattle vs. Cleveland
So the consensus in Vegas is that the Browns are actually favored to win against the Seahawks. Baker Mayfield has been playing horrible, and seems to be getting worse honestly. The Seattle defense is not the Legion of Boom it used to be, but they still have a good group. Baker leads the league in interceptions and I think that trend continues on Sunday. Seattle will cover the spread, and they will also win the game.
Philadelphia vs. Minnesota
The Vikings are favored at home, with the spread being a field goal. Kirk Cousins had a good game last week but I’m not sure if he can repeat that and because of that, I like Philly on the road here. What do the Vikings do best? Run the football with Dalvin Cook. The Eagles defense is allowing 63.0 rushing yards per game, best in the league. Philadelphia contains Dalvin Cook this game, Kirk Cousins is forced to have to throw in long downs and distance and he will come up short.
San Francisco vs. LA Rams
I think the niners are legit, and they are going to win this game on the road. Say what you want about Jimmy Garroppolo, the 49ers defense is really good. With Richard Sherman leading that group, they’re ranked as the #4 defense in points allowed per game. I’m not fully sold on Jared Goff and Todd Gurley doesn’t look like the same running back from last year that was dominating the league.
Another thing to keep in mind is that Kyle Shanahan is a brilliant offensive mind and has this offense clicking on all cylinders right now. The niners offense is #2 in scoring, averaging 31.8 points per game. I’ll take the niners to win here.
Dallas vs. NY Jets
Last game I want to talk about. I’m picking the Jets to cover the spread here. Just to be clear, I don’t think they are going to win the game but they will cover the spread which is 7.5 points right now. That means they have to lose by 8 or more points to miss it. The Jets will get Sam Darnold back this week, which is going to be a huge boost for them. And defensively, they can stop the run. CJ Mosley is still listed as doubtful for this game, which is a big loss for them but I don’t think the Cowboys will light up the scoreboard. The Jets are a much better team than we have seen in the first few weeks, as they have decimated by injuries at key positions. Watch out for Le’Veon Bell, he might have a big game today.
As always, let me know what you guys think,and if you enjoyed this content please like, and share.