Box Office Predictions: Godzilla x Kong to bust some ghosts

Godzilla x Kong is set to take out the new Ghostbusters this weekend, but how much will it make?

Easter Weekend is upon us, and Warner Bros is releasing another huge tentpole with Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire. While everyone knows the movie will no doubt rule the box office this weekend, the question remains: how much will it make? Folks are also curious to see if Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire holds up decently this weekend following its somewhat underwhelming opening. Indeed, this weekend may seal the fate of both WB’s MonsterVerse and Sony’s Ghost Corps.

While studio estimates have Godzilla x Kong making upwards of $60 million, I’m not quite so sure. The franchise has always had mixed results at the box office. The first Godzilla made a huge $93 million but was torpedoed by terrible word-of-mouth soon after. Kong: Skull Island opened softer at $61 million but legged out to a decent final gross. However, Godzilla: King of the Monsters was a flop domestically, opening at $47 million and only making over $110 million. In fact, there was even talk at the time of WB wanting to ditch the franchise, but they were already in production on Godzilla Vs Kong, which, to everyone’s surprise, ended up becoming a major hit. 

While it had the franchise’s lowest opening ($31 million) and lowest final gross (just over $100 million), it’s worth noting the movie opened during the height of the pandemic, at a time when movie theatres were mostly closed. The movie was also day and date on HBO Max, and the fact that it made $470 million worldwide (more than King of the Monsters) made the film a sizeable hit for the studio, all things considered.

While Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire will no doubt open bigger than the last film, I’m not sure the franchise is big enough to double that opening. Were Apple TV’s Monarch a bigger hit, I might think differently, but that show really came and went without much fanfare. My conservative estimate is around $50 million for the 3-day weekend, thanks largely to the fact that kids are off school tomorrow, so matinees and early shows tonight should be huge. 

Meanwhile, I’m expecting Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire to post a pretty big decline of around 60%, putting it in second place around the $18 million-ish range. I think the movie may have a hard time making much more than $120ish million domestically, which may not be enough to sustain a franchise. Godzilla x Kong may finish with roughly the same amount, but given that it’s a kaiju movie, the overseas business will be brisk, which isn’t really the case for Ghostbusters.

Here are my predictions:

  1. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire: $50 million
  2. Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire: $18 million
  3. Dune: Part Two: $13 million
  4. Kung Fu Panda 4: $12 million
  5. Arthur The King: $2 million

Are you going to see the new Godzilla and Kong romp? Let us know in the comments!

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